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Jan
I am facing a big challenge while working with one of my current clients – the Asia Pacific Gateway Skills Table. Their mandate (and one that I believe in strongly) is to ensure that British Columbia has enough people to fill hundreds of thousands of trades jobs that will become vacant in 2015 as the Boomers leave the labour force en masse and BC grows in its role as a major port between North America and Asia. What this organization is trying to do now is help companies and the government prepare for a time of massive labour shortages by looking for ways to bring new hires to the region, to increase productivity and to ensure that we’re doing the most we can with the people that are already here. The concept of labour shortages is difficult to stomach in early 2009 when the headlines read things like “Recession could cut 42,000 B.C. jobs this year” [READ].
The issue is not going away despite our short-term economic woes and if a recent Conference Board of Canada presentation on the BC Economy is anything to go by, the slump will be followed by a major growth spike – a situation that might accelerate the looming labour shortage. Most of the projections that I have seen (including those of a recently released AIMS report on Canadian Labour Shortages [READ - PDF]) show that labour demand in Canada will outstrip supply sometime in mid-2015. However, all of these models assume little or no economic growth. If above-average economic growth does occur after our current recession, that dotted line in the graph below will move up into a steeper angle, bringing the labour shortage crisis closer to today.
Even with modest economic growth in the next decade, we’re still hurtling towards a crisis. By conservative estimates, we have six to seven years to solve the labour problem. Jurisdictions like Australia are already addressing these issues by loosening immigration policies, offering incentives to new skilled immigrants and recognizing more foreign credentials than most Western countries. Canada’s overly restrictive immigration policies and culture of credential-worshipping is not helping the situation. Canada is a great country but in the coming decade, we will need more than our charming personalities to maintain this nation.
Now is the time to start thinking outside the box. I’m going to write more on this topic in the coming year but I firmly believe that our salvation lies in productivity gains and a warmer immigration environment. These views, as I mentioned earlier, are not popular right now because people are having trouble seeing past our current woes. We must look to the future and start planning now. It’s vital to our survival as a country.
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Aaron, the rapidly aging baby boom (they get a year older every year or so, last time I checked) is going to create all sorts of challenges. Labour shortages is one, but extend that out to lower government revenues (fewer people in their prime earning years) and greater government expenses (MSP and CPP primarily) and the challenge is multiplied.
So where in this crisis do the opportunities lie?
You’re absolutely right. I’m not sure where there are opportunities to exploit lower government revenues but I’ll give that some thought.
The fact that there is going to be fewer taxpayers supporting is something that’s been looked at before. It boils down to the ratio of taxpayers to social program dependents. It’s going to move from 2:1.5 to 1:2 very quickly.
That’s why I think it’s important to nip this issue in the butt before it becomes impossible for the remaining taxpayers to support this country.
I strongly agree with your recommendations to update immigration policies.
The argument that immigrants are “stealing Canadian jobs” doesn’t always fly. There are so many skilled and qualified immigrants to fill certain positions that have been understaffed like nursing.
I’ve had extensive conversations with friends who have studied in Canada, worked here for years, and are more than qualified to work in skilled jobs where there is a shortage and they can’t because of policy restrictions.
I was shocked to also learn that even if they want to pay to take continuing education courses, contributing to the Canadian economy, they’re not allowed to do so on a work visa.
The Canadian economy would suffer a lot without the work and spending of immigrants in this country.
The initiative that the government approved in April 2008 for the Canadian experience class is a move toward warmer immigration climate. However, there’s still a lot more work to be done in recognizing foreign credentials and do so in a timely manner.
If Canada do need immigrants as they say they do, then not only the legislation climate needs to be warmer (which is heading that way for international graduate and temporary workers), the points that the immigrants were rewarded upon applying for permanent residence in Canada (education and work experience especially amongst other criteria) should be applicable in practise. There is a disconnect between the theory and practise here. I hear a lot of horror immigration stories where they’re a fully qualified professional (they were rewarded by the immigration point system for their education and work experience) such as communications and graphic designers, not to mention other professionals, cannot get work in their own field because they don’t have Canadian experience — what is implied here is that all the education and previous work experience was worth nothing. You probably talked to them in taxi, see them delivering your pizza, or at your closest famous players box office. If you really do need these people, I think that not only applications need to be sped up, there should be education and/or incentives for employers as well for hiring immigrants to be able to nib that problem on the bud.